Source：My steel 

In the first week after the holiday, the central bank's open market totaled a net withdrawal of 800 billion yuan, but benefiting from the cash return after the Spring Festival and other factors, the overall capital level remained stable and loose. At the same time, the increment of credit and social finance reached a record high in January, and the credit 'good start' was very successful.

Industry insiders said that the January credit data reflected the initial effect of steady growth, and the market's confidence in policy efforts is expected to be strengthened. The improvement of financial data, coupled with the imminent interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve in March, the urgency of broadbanding currency has been reduced, and subsequent structural tools may remain the focus. The probability of cutting interest rates again in the short term has decreased, and the capital level is expected to remain loose in February.

Large net repurchase does not prevent the stable and loosening of the capital, and the overnight repurchase rate closes below 2%.

In the first week after the holiday, the central bank carried out a reverse repurchase operation of 20 billion yuan in the open market for five consecutive trading days. In view of the expiration of 900 billion yuan of reverse repurchase that week, the total net repurchase in the open market was 800 billion yuan.

However, benefiting from factors such as post-holiday cash backflow, the overall capital level remains stable and loose. On the 11th, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) rebounded slightly after four consecutive trading days, but the overnight repurchase rate was still below 2%. Among them, Shibor rose 13.90BP to 1.8120% overnight; Shibor rose 5.60BP to 2.0210% in seven days; Shibor rose 0.90BP to 1.9720% in 14 days.

After entering next week, there are still not many factors to disrupt the capital level, of which 300 billion yuan of reverse repurchase in the open market expired, which is one-third of this week's maturity; on Friday (18th), 200 billion yuan of MLF funds were withdrawn, and the pressure to continue to continue is relatively small; and the deadline for tax payment was also postponed to the 23rd, superimposed after the holiday. The cash return effect continues, and industry insiders expect liquidity to continue to warm up.

Specifically, next week, a total of 300 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will expire in the open market, of which 120 billion yuan will be 120 billion yuan in the first two days and 20 billion yuan in the last three days. In addition, 200 billion yuan of MLF funds will be withdrawn on Friday (18th). However, compared with the maturity scale of MLFs that reached 1 trillion, 950 billion and 500 billion respectively in March, the pressure to continue this month is relatively small.

Zhang Jiqiang of Huatai Securities said that there will be a window to cut interest rates on the 18th, but the probability of lowering the reserve rate in February is not high.' Given that the Federal Reserve is about to raise interest rates in March, there is still a certain possibility of lowering the MLF interest rate in February, but this month is a window for economic data, and central banks are more likely to observe the effect of the policy first, of which January credit data is the key.

Supply and demand work together, and credit 'good start' in January is very successful.

In fact, compared with the past, the market pays special attention to the financial data for January this year. Some analysts said that whether credit can achieve a 'good start' will greatly affect the direction and strength of follow-up policies. However, due to the coexistence of active policy guidance and weak physical demand, market expectations of this have once diverged.

Under the high attention, the veil of January data was finally officially unveiled on the 10th. The total amount and structure were better than expected, and the overall 'good start' was achieved. Among them, RMB loans of 3.98 trillion yuan were added that month, and the scale of social finance increased by 6.17 trillion yuan, both of which set a record high.

Specifically, in terms of credit, according to the data of the People's Bank of China, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan in January, a new monthly new scale, an increase of 2.85 trillion yuan and 394.4 billion yuan more than the previous month and the same period last year, respectively. Among them, the enterprise department added 3.36 trillion yuan in loans, an increase of 2.7 trillion yuan over the previous month; accounting for 84.4% of all the new loans, a new high since February last year.

Zhong Linnan, a senior macro analyst at Guangfa Securities, said that behind the high credit is the resonance between the supply and demand sides of funds under the extremely clear policy tone. First of all, the Central Economic Work Conference requires 'policy efforts to be properly forward'. The central bank emphasizes 'open the monetary policy toolbox a little bigger' and 'avoid credit landslides', and the positive orientation is extremely obvious.

Secondly, at the beginning of the year, banks had a strong willingness to get off, and under the requirements of the front, they would show a more seasonal front; the previous rate cuts and interest rate cuts also eased the bank' interest rate constraints and liquidity constraints. Finally, 'the policy of stabilizing growth in the early stage has played an initial effect, especially the issuance of special bonds triggering the financing needs of supporting projects, which provides a starting point for bank credit.' Zhong Linnan said.

In terms of social finance, at the end of January, the stock of social finance was 320.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, and the overall recovery trend continued. In that month, the scale of social finance was 6.17 trillion yuan, setting a new high in a single month, including intra-balance sheet loans, government bonds, direct Financing has become the main driver of strong social finance.

Zhou Junzhi, chief macro analyst of Minsheng Securities, said that the total amount of social finance exceeded expectations in January, and all major sub-items also performed well, reflecting the initiative and active liberalization at the financing supply level. Specifically, the reason why this month's data exceeded expectations is that the supply side has finally waited for the expansion of demand, that is, the expansion of infrastructure financing demand. Judging from the current rhythm, broad credit is still on the way, and the focus of the next round of broad credit may fall on real estate again.

The 'urgentness' of the broadbanding currency is reduced, and the broadbanding credit is likely to continue.

Now the financial data has landed in January, and the credit 'good start' has also been verified. How to interpret the subsequent broad credit, and where will the driving point of monetary policy fall?

On the whole, Zhang Jiqiang, chief fixed income officer of Huatai Securities, said that the total amount of data this time exceeded expectations, but there were still some structural doubts. In the short term, central banks may need to continue to observe the sustainability of broad credit, and monetary policy has not yet come out of the window of loosening. However, the financial data has improved, coupled with the imminent interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve in March, the urgency of loosening the currency has been reduced, and subsequent structural instruments may still be the focus. The capital level is expected to remain loose in February.

Specifically, CITIC Securities clearly predicts that February may still be the 'credit month' of previous years, and March is expected to lead to the recovery of 'broad credit'. Under the guidance of policies, the first quarter will still be the peak of credit delivery throughout the year.

Throughout the year, Cinda Securities Express predicts that the new social finance is expected to return to the 2020 level in 2022, and the growth rate of social finance stock will reach more than 11%. Among them, the factors supporting the rebound of social finance mainly come from the following aspects. First, RMB loans have achieved rapid growth, mortgages have stabilized in sub-items, infrastructure loans have been made, manufacturing loans have grown rapidly, and green and inclusive loans will play a more important role; second, government debt financing has been expanded under broad finance; and third, off-balance sheet financing has decreased. The speed is relatively slowing down; fourth, direct financing such as corporate bonds and stock issuance has increased.

In terms of reducing the reserve ratio and interest rate, Sun Binbin of Tianfeng Securities believes that it is rare for the central bank to cut interest rates again after the Spring Festival in history, and the current social finance data has made initial progress. PPI is still at a high level, and there may be certain restrictions on the periphery. The probability of the central bank cutting interest rates again in the short term is low.

Looking forward to the follow-up, Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, said that in the next stage, steady growth should continue to expand domestic demand and stabilize external demand. At present, the way for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy is gradually clear. It is expected to start raising interest rates after ending the purchase of bonds in March, and will start shrinking in due course. China's macro policies should make good use of the window before the substantial contraction of the Federal Reserve's policies, make good use of the total and structural policies, strengthen the coordination and cooperation between fiscal and monetary policies, reverse market expectations as soon as possible, boost confidence, and ensure that the economic operation is in a reasonable range.