Source: China Metallurgical News

General Administration of Customs data show that in November, China exported 9.278 million tons of steel, up 15.9% year-on-year, down 24.9 percentage points. In the first 11 months of this year, China exported 101.152 million tons of steel, breaking 100 million tons, up 22.6% year-on-year. According to Lange Steel Research Center calculations, in November, China's net exports of steel 8.885 million tons, an increase of 19.1% year-on-year, down 27.2 percentage points. 1-11 months, China's net exports of steel 94.958 million tons, an increase of 25.5% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points.

Overall, the current global manufacturing index rose steadily, the external demand boom weak recovery; China's steel enterprises export order index rebounded to the expansion zone, superimposed on the depreciation of the RMB, together to promote the competitiveness of China's steel exports. In the case of a low base in the same period last year, China's steel exports in December year-on-year still maintain the growth trend, the annual steel exports are expected to reach 110 million tons. From historical data, in 2015, China's steel exports hit an all-time high of 112.39 million tons; 2016 is slightly lower, the second highest in history, reaching 108.49 million tons. 2024 steel exports will be more than 2016, slightly lower than 2015, difficult to create a new record high. , the current international trade friction increased, but also on the late steel exports to form the inhibition. The relevant influencing factors are analyzed as follows:

1.Global manufacturing PMI steadily rebounded, external demand has recovered

In November, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a rebound of 0.5 percentage points, a record high since the second half of this year; JP Morgan November global manufacturing PMI in the contraction zone has risen, 50.0%, a rebound of 0.6 percentage points. The global economic recovery trend has signs of a steady upturn. Domestically, in November, China's manufacturing new export orders index reached 48.1%, a rebound of 0.8 percentage points, in the contraction range again. This reflects the overseas demand of China's manufacturing industry has recovered, pulled by the rebound of the global manufacturing industry.

2.Overseas supply to maintain a downward trend, favorable to domestic steel exports

In October, the world's 71 countries included in the World Steel Association statistics crude steel production of 151.2 million tons, an increase of 0.4%. In addition to China, the rest of the world's crude steel production continued the trend of year-on-year decline, down 2.3%, a decline of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month. Overseas steel supply decreased year-on-year, favoring China's steel exports.

3.China's steel enterprises export orders index rose to the expansion zone

In November, China's steel enterprises new export orders index was 50.8%, up 1.0 percentage points from a year earlier. Steel enterprises export orders index has rebounded to the expansion zone, China's late steel exports will form a certain support.

4.Short-term depreciation of the yuan continues to enhance the competitiveness of steel exports

Since November, the U.S. dollar in the global market performance is strong, the U.S. dollar index all the way up, resulting in the continued depreciation of the yuan. To a certain extent, to enhance the competitiveness of China's steel exports.

5.International trade friction increased on China's steel exports to form inhibition

Since November, the Dominican Republic, Thailand, Australia, the European Union launched a trade remedy investigation of China's steel products, involving China's exports of steel pipes, H-type hot-rolled steel, hot rolled coil steel, high-pressure seamless steel cylinders and other products.

Part of the previous investigation of the case preliminary ruling results were introduced, November 19, South Africa's International Trade Administration Committee (ITAC) issued a notice, originating in or imported from China and Thailand's steel section to make anti-dumping affirmative preliminary ruling on the products involved in the imposition of temporary anti-dumping duties for a period of six months, the tax rate of 52.81%. According to statistics, since this year, other countries on China's steel products launched a total of 32 trade remedy investigations, an increase in trade sanctions will inhibit China's steel exports.

From a comprehensive point of view, the current depreciation of the renminbi, steel companies export orders index rebounded and other factors are on China's steel exports to form a certain support, but the increase in international trade friction will also inhibit steel exports, China's steel exports are expected to maintain the growth in December year-on-year, the annual steel exports are difficult to create a new record high, but is expected to be stable at the second-highest level in history.

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