Last week, the overall steel market fell slightly, from the spot point of view, thread, hot coil mostly fell 10-20 yuan, hot coil slightly weaker than thread, a few market decline reached 30 yuan. Other steel grades have also weakened, and the overall market atmosphere is worse than the day before. The transaction is average, and the wait-and-see mood is strong.

At present, the market is still volatile. This is mainly due to the volatile market sentiment, external factors and the lack of an environment for an upward rebound, with time and space not in place. Winter storage has not yet started, and market confidence is insufficient. In the short term, it is necessary to prevent raw materials and finished products from continuing to go down in a weak cycle.

In 2025, the market will continue to weaken, the market has accumulated a certain amount of pessimism, and the short-term market is still unstable. On the other hand, the black raw material end weakened again, and the entire price center of gravity shifted downward. However, the resilience of the spot will still play a stabilizing role, and the space below is still limited.

To sum up, external factors disturbed, steel market sentiment is unstable, steel raw materials and finished products contradiction intensification, conservative winter storage, lack of market confidence, etc., steel prices may not escape shocks in the short term, but based on good fundamentals, spot resilience continues to play a role, and the space below steel prices is limited. The influencing factors are analyzed as follows:

1. Cost

In December 2024, raw material prices generally declined, and into January 2025, the production willingness of steel mills is expected to continue to contract, and the demand for raw materials will also slow down. Iron ore prices are affected by factors such as weakening demand, and may show a weak operating trend; On the whole, raw material prices will show a weak shock trend in January, and the support for steel prices on the cost side is weak.

2. Macro policy

The existence of the policy window period has gradually weakened the positive news, and although the strategic price support is still there, the trend of lack of strong support is still difficult to change. At the same time, the volatile overseas economic policies, especially the Federal Reserve's monetary policy moves, have a bearish impact on market sentiment, which in turn suppresses steel demand.

3. Market sentiment and price trends

On January 5, Xu Steel and many other steel companies released price adjustment information shows that the ex-factory prices of some products remain unchanged, but on other steel varieties, steel mills have generally chosen to reduce prices, market supply is still increasing, demand is weak, and the overall market is sluggish. The market is fluctuating in a range, and the market generally believes that there is a possibility of a continued correction in steel prices.

Email:lucy@evergrowrs.com