Source: Lange Steel Network

In the first half of this year, China's steel exports showed strong growth. According to customs statistics, China exported 53.4 million tons of steel from January to June 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24%. During the same period, the export value of mechanical and electrical products increased by 8.2%, accounting for 58.9% of the total export value; among them, the export of automatic data processing equipment and its parts increased by 10.3%, the export of automobiles increased by 22.2%, and the export value of ships increased by 91.1% year-on-year. According to preliminary estimates, China's indirect steel exports currently far exceed its direct exports. The total steel exports in the first half of the year (direct steel exports plus indirect steel exports) should be converted into crude steel of no less than 100 million tons.

Can the strong growth of China's steel exports in the first half of the year continue in the second half of the year? Judging from multiple factors: Due to the strong resilience of steel exports this year, it is expected that the national steel exports (including indirect exports, the same below) will continue to be huge in scale in the second half of the year, while maintaining a year-on-year growth trend, but the growth rate will fall back.

From the perspective of external factors, the continued improvement of the global trade situation will drive the stable growth of total steel exports. From the perspective of the policies of the decision-making departments, the introduction of a series of measures to stabilize foreign trade has consolidated the export competitiveness of steel and steel-consuming products. From the perspective of domestic production capacity, its comprehensive and advanced production capacity system provides a strong material basis for the export of steel and steel-consuming products. From the perspective of exchange rate factors, the moderate depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has strengthened the export competitiveness of China's steel and steel-consuming products. From the perspective of short-term factors, overseas importers such as the United States have started a stockpiling cycle again.

The steel price index is shown in the figure

e-mail: jack@evergrowrs.com